Shibetoshi Nakamoto, a prominent analyst in the cryptocurrency space, has suggested that the upcoming altcoin season in 2025 may not be as explosive as the one in 2021. His analysis highlights structural and macroeconomic differences that could temper market enthusiasm. As Bitcoin retreated slightly in late August 2025, with its market dominance (BTC.D) falling to 59%, discussions around the possibility of an altcoin season in the second half of the year gained momentum. However, according to historical patterns, an altcoin season typically begins when BTC.D drops below 55%. The current level, while showing some signs of capital rotation, has not yet reached this critical threshold [1].
A comparison of the 2025 market to previous bull cycles reveals several key distinctions. Institutional capital has become a dominant force in this cycle, with major asset management firms such as BlackRock and Fidelity participating through Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs. This institutional involvement has shifted the dynamics of capital flows, reducing the sensitivity of Bitcoin and Ethereum to standalone price fluctuations and increasing their correlation with traditional risk assets. Additionally, the macroeconomic environment differs from past bull markets. Unlike previous cycles, which occurred amid global liquidity expansions, the Federal Reserve is currently maintaining high interest rates, curbing the market’s upward momentum [1].
The Altcoin Season Index, a metric that measures the proportion of top 100 altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over the past 90 days, currently stands at approximately 44, far below the 75 level that historically signals a full-fledged altcoin season. While the index has shown a gradual increase in the past month, it remains a far cry from the elevated levels observed in 2021, when the index regularly exceeded 90 and remained high for over three months. This suggests that market capital is still concentrated in large-cap assets, with mid- and small-cap altcoins showing limited activity [1].
Despite the subdued index, there are early signs of capital movement into the altcoin market. The total market capitalization of altcoins has grown by 50% since early July, indicating a slow but steady shift. However, Ethereum continues to outperform most altcoins, with its market share not yet reaching historical peaks. This suggests that while capital is rotating, it remains largely concentrated in leading assets, limiting the breadth of the altcoin rally [1].
Looking ahead, the second half of 2025 could witness a three-phase evolution of the altcoin market. In the short term, structural opportunities are expected to emerge, particularly in narrative-driven sectors such as AI, RWA (Real-World Assets), and blockchain gaming. In the medium term, if BTC.D falls further and the macroeconomic environment becomes more accommodative—potentially due to Federal Reserve rate cuts—an altcoin season could officially begin. Finally, in the long term, the structure of this cycle may diverge from previous ones, with institutional dominance potentially prolonging rallies in major coins while limiting the performance potential of smaller altcoins [1].
Analyst Ray Yossef of NoOnes has echoed some of these sentiments, noting that the altcoin season may have already reached its peak. He cited BTC.D dropping to the high 50s and more than 30 altcoins outperforming Bitcoin in the last 90 days as signs of a late-cycle peak. Yossef emphasized the need for caution, warning that a sharp correction could follow, particularly in speculative tokens lacking real-world utility [2].
While some analysts are cautiously optimistic about the potential for a new altcoin season, the market remains in a phase of measured optimism. Investors are advised to closely monitor key indicators such as BTC.D, the Altcoin Season Index, and macroeconomic policy changes. Rational positioning, selecting altcoins with long-term value and real-world applications, and avoiding speculative hype remain prudent strategies in navigating the evolving crypto landscape [1].
Source:
[1] Altseason Coming in 2025? Cycles, Indicators, and Macro … (https://www.mexc.com/en-GB/learn/article/altseason-coming-in-2025-cycles-indicators-and-macro-dynamics/1)
[2] Analyst: We’re At The Top Of The Alt Season Now (https://investinghaven.com/crypto-blockchain/coins/bitcoin/analyst-were-at-the-top-of-the-alt-season-now/)
